The Melbourne Cup brings the nation of Australia to a standstill on the first Tuesday in November with over 100,000 people expected at Flemington racecourse. The race is a Group 1 handicap event run over a distance of 3200 metres worth a cool $5.5 million dollars. The Mug Punting Team preview the 2009 Melbourne Cup below:
RACE 7 - 2009 EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP (3200 METRES) @ 3PM
| No | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight |
| 1 | VIEWED | Bart Cummings | Brad Rawiller | 9 | 58 |
| 2 | C'EST LA GUERRE | John Sadler | Nicholas Hall | 7 | 55.5 |
| 3 | FIUMICINO | M W & J Hawkes | Steven King | 24 | 55.5 |
| 4 | MASTER O'REILLY | Danny O'Brien | Vlad Duric | 16 | 55 |
| 5 | MOURILYAN | Herman Brown | Glyn Schofield | 14 | 54.5 |
| 6 | ROMAN EMPEROR | Bart Cummings | Hugh Bowman | 15 | 54 |
| 7 | ISTA KAREEM | Colin Little | Luke Nolen | 23 | 53.5 |
| 8 | CRIME SCENE | Saeed Bin Suroor | Kerrin McEvoy | 11 | 53 |
| 9 | MUNSEF | Ian Williams | Zac Purton | 5 | 53 |
| 10 | ZAVITE | Anthony Cummings | Mark Zahra | 3 | 53 |
| 11 | ALCOPOP | Jake Stephens | Dom Tourneur | 12 | 52.5 |
| 12 | HARRIS TWEED | Murray & Bjorn Baker | Craig Newitt | 20 | 52.5 |
| 13 | KIBBUTZ | Jarrod McLean | Chris Symons | 8 | 52.5 |
| 14 | NEWPORT | Paul Perry | Peter Wells | 18 | 52.5 |
| 15 | WARRINGAH | Chris Waller | Damien Oliver | 17 | 52.5 |
| 16 | GALLIONS REACH | Richard Yuill | Dwayne Dunn | 6 | 52 |
| 17 | SPIN AROUND | Steven Cooper | Mark Du Plessis | 4 | 52 |
| 18 | BASALTICO | Luca Cumani | Danny Nikolic | 10 | 51.5 |
| 19 | CAPECOVER | Alexander R Fieldes | Noel Harris | 19 | 51.5 |
| 20 | DAFFODIL | Kevin Gray | Chris Munce | 21 | 51.5 |
| 21 | SHOCKING | Mark Kavanagh | Corey Brown | 22 | 51 |
| 22 | ALLEZ WONDER | Bart Cummings | Michelle Payne | 13 | 50.5 |
| 23 | CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD | David Hayes | Glen Boss | 1 | 50.5 |
| 24 | LEICA DING | Darren Weir | Craig Williams | 2 | 50.5 |
Race Speed: SLOW
Despite it being a Melbourne Cup there just doesn't look to be much natural pace in the race. Unlike last year where the 3 Aiden O'Brien trained horses went coco bananas in front this should be run quite leisurely.
How they will settle.
Expect to see Zavite lead quite easily with Fiumicino being ridden prominently again. Basaltico should be closer than the Geelong Cup run and Alcopop should slot in perfectly midfield with cover.
Might get into Trouble:
Any or all of Shocking, Fiumicino, Daffodil and Harris Tweed could find themselves 3 wide the whole trip. Viewed may need a slice of luck to get clear running in the straight with tiring horses falling back into his lap.
Should get the “Gun Run”:
Gallion's Reach and Alcopop.
MELBOURNE CUP - Horse by Horse Preview
Viewed
Mug Punting says: Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who couldn’t be ticking over any better for this year’s edition. Won the Caulfield Cup with a miracle ride and then wasn’t punished when running on for 3rd in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. He’s not been harshly treated with 58kgs against what is an average cup field and couldn’t have asked for a better barrier than 9. Massive chance of a repeat and to give Bart cup no.13.
C’est La Guerre
Mug Punting says: Placed in last year’s Melbourne Cup but doesn’t appear to be going as well this preparation. OK in both the Makybe Diva and Turnbull but terrible in the Underwood and Caulfield Cup. Perhaps he does his best racing at Flemington but would really need some sting out of the track to be competitive you would think.
Fiumicino
Mug Punting says: Seems off that a former Derby and BMW winner would be 60/1 in the Melbourne Cup but it’s all down to the fact that this horse needs a bog track to produce his best. Having said that he wasn’t terrible in the Caulfield Cup when raced on the pace and finished 5th. Didn’t run the 2 miles when tried in the Sydney Cup this year so would suggest he has his work cut out here. Barrier 24 was the death knell.
Master O’Reilly
Mug Punting says: 2007 Caulfield Cup winner who’s been trained for this race and has arguably as good a form as what Viewed does. Hasn’t been far away in the Weight For Age races and ran on from well back in the Caulfield Cup. Perfect trial when ran home the best of anything in the Mackinnon Stakes and proved he could run 2 miles when 4th last year. Must include.
Mourilyan
Mug Punting says: 1st of the internationals who is impossible to line up. Has placed at his only two starts over this distance at both Dubai and Goodwood and is a last start winner when carried 60.5kgs. Drops to 54.5kgs here. Can’t dismiss.
Roman Emperor
Mug Punting says: 2nd of the Bart brigade who hadn’t done much this preparation until he bobbed up in the Caulfield Cup when looked home at the 300 metre mark but then Viewed snuck up on his inside and burst away. Looks to have been times to the minute for his race and of course has the best trainer of cup horses on his side. Does go better with the sting out of the track and won the AJC Derby under those conditions. Each way.
Ista Kareem
Mug Punting says: Greybeard who won what was a weak Sydney Cup this year but does stay all day. Good run here two starts back behind Light Vision under big weight and probably found the track too hard at Moonee Valley in the MV Cup. Had been running on well all campaign before that so if you forgive that run and there’s some rain about, he’s not totally hopeless. Barrier 23 means he has to go way back though.
Crime Scene
Mug Punting says: The lone Godolphin horse who made his Australian debut in the Geelong Cup and wasn’t disgraced as he loomed up to win but just petered on his run late when 2 length 6th. Drops 4.5kgs from that run but hasn’t proven himself over this distance at this stage. 2008 cup runner Mad Rush thrashed him 4 starts back. Happy to risk.
Munsef
Mug Punting says: Another international who’s hard to line up as he’s in great form (run top 2 his past 5 starts). Well travelled having raced everywhere from Great Britain to Stockholm of all places. Has placed at 65% of his runs which underlines his consistency, dropping massively in weight from recent runs and has a good barrier in 5. Negatives are that he’s an 8 year old and hasn’t raced for 51 days. Once again, can’t dismiss.
Zavite
Mug Punting says: Has won an Adelaide Cup so can run the two miles but based on recent runs in the Caulfield Cup and Herbert Power all he’ll be doing in the Cup is being the pacemaker and giving backers a sight until about the 300 metre mark. Not good enough.
Alcopop
Mug Punting says: What a fairytale this is! Nobody (aside from South Australian locals) had heard of this horse 8 weeks ago and he only won the Balaclava Cup in a photo 3 starts back. Since then he spreadeagled them in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley and then produced what we thought was one of the most devastating performances since some of Divine Madonna’s Flemington wins when put paid to them in one stride in the Herbert Power and flogged Shocking who’s a pretty damn good horse. Would have trotted home in the Caulfield Cup had he run in the race but has been working well since and with only 52.5kgs on his back, all he has to do his stay to win. Top pick.
Harris Tweed
Mug Punting says: NZ plodder who would need a Heavy track to have any chance and even then most of his rivals would improve on that sort of surface. Unsighted in the Caulfield Cup and Kelt Capital at his past two runs and can’t see him figuring here. No.
Kibbutz
Mug Punting says: Much maligned horse who won the 2007 VRC Derby but had his injury and form issues since. Showed some signs when looked the winner briefly in the Moonee Valley Cup but just died on his run when finishing 4th. The form from that race is unlikely to stack up here so can’t recommend him.
Newport
Mug Punting says: 2008 Metrop winner who’s a very hard horse to catch but we’ve been impressed with his last two runs when running on when the race was all over in the Coongy and the Mackinnon. Ran 10th in this last year but would suggest he’s going better this campaign and his sectionals have also been good recently. One of the better roughies.
Warringah
Mug Punting says: International who is now under the care of Sydney trainer Chris Waller. European form is OK without being spectacular and ran OK in the Ebor which is a race which usually acts as reasonable formguide. Barrier 17 is tricky but is well in the betting markets and have to expect the fact that the best Melbourne Cup jockey of all time Damien Oliver has chosen to ride him.
Gallions Reach
Mug Punting says: New Zealander who would be causing a massive boilover even if he placed here. Nowhere in the Geelong Cup and then improved in the Bendigo Cup. Rolls forward so might give backers a sight but his only good recent run was a 3rd in the Auckland Cup which surely isn’t good enough for this. Passing.
Spin Around
Mug Punting says: Another Kiwi who actually won the Auckland Cup but was well beaten in the Geelong Cup and 9 year olds don’t win Melbourne Cups. Happy to risk.
Basaltico
Mug Punting says: Cumani trained international who’s been making headlines with recent change in ownership to the O’Donnell/Henderson ‘juggernaught’. His overseas form isn’t as strong as some of the others (Munsef beat him easily recently) but he did work home solidly from well back in the Geelong Cup. Place chance.
Capecover
Mug Punting says: 2008 Queen Elizabeth winner but couldn’t win a Moonee Valley handicap 3 starts back and has been well beaten in the Herbert Power and Bendigo Cup since. No chance.
Daffodil
Mug Punting says: New Zealand’s best mare (probably) who won the AJC Oaks in the autumn convincingly and has run well in the Kelt Capital and Caulfield Cup at her past two suggesting she is on track. Barrier 21 has put a dampener on expectations and perhaps a track with more give in it would assist so connections would be looking for a bit of rain. Should run well but perhaps just short of a winning chance.
Shocking
Mug Punting says: Kavanagh horse who got a long overdue win in the SAAB Quality on Saturday when showed a devastating turn of foot to win in a canter. Got a featherweight on his back which helps but is perhaps ‘too brilliant’ to be winning over 2 miles and has drawn barrier 22. We suspect he may not quite run the 2 miles but we could easily be proven wrong.
Allez Wonder
Mug Punting says: The final of the Cumming’s trio who surprised winning the Toorak handicap at cricket score odds and then seemed a bit flat in the Caulfield Cup but was jumping from 1600 to 2400 metres. Perhaps needs to be ridden a touch quieter and she ran on well when placed in last year’s Oaks so that could be the trick. No weight on her back and we’d be fools to knock any of Bart’s horses considering Viewed was given no chance last year and won at 50/1. Needs a dry track.
Changingoftheguard
Mug Punting says: The highest rated of the internationals who is now with David Hayes. Only a 4 year old and had just the 7 starts which makes this a huge ask but was only narrowly beaten in the Ebor and from barrier 1 you can see Glen Boss giving this a cheeky ride. Might be 12 months away from his best but probably needs to be included in whatever you’re doing.
Leica Ding
Mug Punting says: Bonny mare who’s ultra consistent and was good to see her winning the Geelong Cup after some tremendous runs in mares’ grade prior to this. Doubt the form is good enough out of the Geelong Cup based on the fact that Shocking demolished most of them on Saturday but she’ll try her heart out and perhaps finish just in front of midfield.
Mug Punting says: Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who couldn’t be ticking over any better for this year’s edition. Won the Caulfield Cup with a miracle ride and then wasn’t punished when running on for 3rd in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. He’s not been harshly treated with 58kgs against what is an average cup field and couldn’t have asked for a better barrier than 9. Massive chance of a repeat and to give Bart cup no.13.
C’est La Guerre
Mug Punting says: Placed in last year’s Melbourne Cup but doesn’t appear to be going as well this preparation. OK in both the Makybe Diva and Turnbull but terrible in the Underwood and Caulfield Cup. Perhaps he does his best racing at Flemington but would really need some sting out of the track to be competitive you would think.
Fiumicino
Mug Punting says: Seems off that a former Derby and BMW winner would be 60/1 in the Melbourne Cup but it’s all down to the fact that this horse needs a bog track to produce his best. Having said that he wasn’t terrible in the Caulfield Cup when raced on the pace and finished 5th. Didn’t run the 2 miles when tried in the Sydney Cup this year so would suggest he has his work cut out here. Barrier 24 was the death knell.
Master O’Reilly
Mug Punting says: 2007 Caulfield Cup winner who’s been trained for this race and has arguably as good a form as what Viewed does. Hasn’t been far away in the Weight For Age races and ran on from well back in the Caulfield Cup. Perfect trial when ran home the best of anything in the Mackinnon Stakes and proved he could run 2 miles when 4th last year. Must include.
Mourilyan
Mug Punting says: 1st of the internationals who is impossible to line up. Has placed at his only two starts over this distance at both Dubai and Goodwood and is a last start winner when carried 60.5kgs. Drops to 54.5kgs here. Can’t dismiss.
Roman Emperor
Mug Punting says: 2nd of the Bart brigade who hadn’t done much this preparation until he bobbed up in the Caulfield Cup when looked home at the 300 metre mark but then Viewed snuck up on his inside and burst away. Looks to have been times to the minute for his race and of course has the best trainer of cup horses on his side. Does go better with the sting out of the track and won the AJC Derby under those conditions. Each way.
Ista Kareem
Mug Punting says: Greybeard who won what was a weak Sydney Cup this year but does stay all day. Good run here two starts back behind Light Vision under big weight and probably found the track too hard at Moonee Valley in the MV Cup. Had been running on well all campaign before that so if you forgive that run and there’s some rain about, he’s not totally hopeless. Barrier 23 means he has to go way back though.
Crime Scene
Mug Punting says: The lone Godolphin horse who made his Australian debut in the Geelong Cup and wasn’t disgraced as he loomed up to win but just petered on his run late when 2 length 6th. Drops 4.5kgs from that run but hasn’t proven himself over this distance at this stage. 2008 cup runner Mad Rush thrashed him 4 starts back. Happy to risk.
Munsef
Mug Punting says: Another international who’s hard to line up as he’s in great form (run top 2 his past 5 starts). Well travelled having raced everywhere from Great Britain to Stockholm of all places. Has placed at 65% of his runs which underlines his consistency, dropping massively in weight from recent runs and has a good barrier in 5. Negatives are that he’s an 8 year old and hasn’t raced for 51 days. Once again, can’t dismiss.
Zavite
Mug Punting says: Has won an Adelaide Cup so can run the two miles but based on recent runs in the Caulfield Cup and Herbert Power all he’ll be doing in the Cup is being the pacemaker and giving backers a sight until about the 300 metre mark. Not good enough.
Alcopop
Mug Punting says: What a fairytale this is! Nobody (aside from South Australian locals) had heard of this horse 8 weeks ago and he only won the Balaclava Cup in a photo 3 starts back. Since then he spreadeagled them in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley and then produced what we thought was one of the most devastating performances since some of Divine Madonna’s Flemington wins when put paid to them in one stride in the Herbert Power and flogged Shocking who’s a pretty damn good horse. Would have trotted home in the Caulfield Cup had he run in the race but has been working well since and with only 52.5kgs on his back, all he has to do his stay to win. Top pick.
Harris Tweed
Mug Punting says: NZ plodder who would need a Heavy track to have any chance and even then most of his rivals would improve on that sort of surface. Unsighted in the Caulfield Cup and Kelt Capital at his past two runs and can’t see him figuring here. No.
Kibbutz
Mug Punting says: Much maligned horse who won the 2007 VRC Derby but had his injury and form issues since. Showed some signs when looked the winner briefly in the Moonee Valley Cup but just died on his run when finishing 4th. The form from that race is unlikely to stack up here so can’t recommend him.
Newport
Mug Punting says: 2008 Metrop winner who’s a very hard horse to catch but we’ve been impressed with his last two runs when running on when the race was all over in the Coongy and the Mackinnon. Ran 10th in this last year but would suggest he’s going better this campaign and his sectionals have also been good recently. One of the better roughies.
Warringah
Mug Punting says: International who is now under the care of Sydney trainer Chris Waller. European form is OK without being spectacular and ran OK in the Ebor which is a race which usually acts as reasonable formguide. Barrier 17 is tricky but is well in the betting markets and have to expect the fact that the best Melbourne Cup jockey of all time Damien Oliver has chosen to ride him.
Gallions Reach
Mug Punting says: New Zealander who would be causing a massive boilover even if he placed here. Nowhere in the Geelong Cup and then improved in the Bendigo Cup. Rolls forward so might give backers a sight but his only good recent run was a 3rd in the Auckland Cup which surely isn’t good enough for this. Passing.
Spin Around
Mug Punting says: Another Kiwi who actually won the Auckland Cup but was well beaten in the Geelong Cup and 9 year olds don’t win Melbourne Cups. Happy to risk.
Basaltico
Mug Punting says: Cumani trained international who’s been making headlines with recent change in ownership to the O’Donnell/Henderson ‘juggernaught’. His overseas form isn’t as strong as some of the others (Munsef beat him easily recently) but he did work home solidly from well back in the Geelong Cup. Place chance.
Capecover
Mug Punting says: 2008 Queen Elizabeth winner but couldn’t win a Moonee Valley handicap 3 starts back and has been well beaten in the Herbert Power and Bendigo Cup since. No chance.
Daffodil
Mug Punting says: New Zealand’s best mare (probably) who won the AJC Oaks in the autumn convincingly and has run well in the Kelt Capital and Caulfield Cup at her past two suggesting she is on track. Barrier 21 has put a dampener on expectations and perhaps a track with more give in it would assist so connections would be looking for a bit of rain. Should run well but perhaps just short of a winning chance.
Shocking
Mug Punting says: Kavanagh horse who got a long overdue win in the SAAB Quality on Saturday when showed a devastating turn of foot to win in a canter. Got a featherweight on his back which helps but is perhaps ‘too brilliant’ to be winning over 2 miles and has drawn barrier 22. We suspect he may not quite run the 2 miles but we could easily be proven wrong.
Allez Wonder
Mug Punting says: The final of the Cumming’s trio who surprised winning the Toorak handicap at cricket score odds and then seemed a bit flat in the Caulfield Cup but was jumping from 1600 to 2400 metres. Perhaps needs to be ridden a touch quieter and she ran on well when placed in last year’s Oaks so that could be the trick. No weight on her back and we’d be fools to knock any of Bart’s horses considering Viewed was given no chance last year and won at 50/1. Needs a dry track.
Changingoftheguard
Mug Punting says: The highest rated of the internationals who is now with David Hayes. Only a 4 year old and had just the 7 starts which makes this a huge ask but was only narrowly beaten in the Ebor and from barrier 1 you can see Glen Boss giving this a cheeky ride. Might be 12 months away from his best but probably needs to be included in whatever you’re doing.
Leica Ding
Mug Punting says: Bonny mare who’s ultra consistent and was good to see her winning the Geelong Cup after some tremendous runs in mares’ grade prior to this. Doubt the form is good enough out of the Geelong Cup based on the fact that Shocking demolished most of them on Saturday but she’ll try her heart out and perhaps finish just in front of midfield.