In MELBOURNE...the Mug Punting Team cover the FLEMINGTON meeting with FREE Horse Racing Previews, Horse Racing Tips & Form Guide.

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SPEEDMAP ANALYSIS

Note: The above diagram is our opinion on how the horses will “settle” after approximately 200m of the race.

MUG PUNTING Horse Racing Tips - SMS Packs for this Meeting

Predicted Track: Dead 4 (Dead 5 @ Thursday – Weather Forecast: Cloudy, Sunny Breaks).  Rail: True.

Big O’s Oracle

14 – Lightinthenite
1 – King Lionheart
12 – Kontiki Park

Viva Las represents the only natural speed here so despite her horrendous barrier draw, she should eventually be able to roll over to the front without too much fuss.  Expect Kontiki Park to also roll forward from his alley likewise.  Pace should be genuine without being excessive.  King Lionheart gets the perfect trail which will help him lumber the 58kgs.  New Day Rising gets a charmed run with cover while there is a risk of Lightinthenite being posted deep on the speed.  Plenty of the main chances (inc. Monton and Fibrillation) will get well back which is not conducive to winning at Warwick Farm generally, with its short straight.

The Villiers is a progressive horse’s type of race and Lightinthenite certainly fits comfortably into that bracket.  Only had the seven career starts but is rising through the grades rapidly and really fought back hard when Monton eventually got the better of him in listed company last start.  Gets 3.5kg turnaround at the weights for a half length defeat there so given the similar grade of this race, he looks extremely well placed and provided he can provide some early cover, he should be right in this at the finish.

King Lionheart’s condition gave in first up behind Monton over the 1500 metre at Rosehill, but only beaten 3.7 lengths and would have derived immense improvement from the run.  He was in scintillating form in the spring, where he picked up a Group 2 win in the Shannon Stakes along the way, and in my view could have won the Epsom had he not had a case of the thumps during the race.  Awesome barrier draw here to enable him to park in the box seat so not concerned he has to carry 58kgs and his class may just drag him home.

Kontiki Park is awfully hard to catch but has run well twice this preparation with his abject failure being forgivable due to having a tough run.  Right down in the weights here and should position handy in running.  A mile is probably his best go and he’s good each way value here.

Of the others, I have a lot of respect for Fibrillation who was around the money in the classic 3 year old fillies’ races last year and she’s hit the line well at her two lead up runs to this.  Always going to need luck given her racing pattern and a bit more sting out of the ground would help however, watch for her late as she gets out to this trip.  Altered Boy shows up in the winners’ stall about as often as Halley’s Comet orbits the Earth but he’s my blowout chance here.

Shaggy's selections

8 - New Day Rising
10 - Fibrillation
14 - Lightinthenite

Horse Racing Tips: The Mug Punting SMS subscription differs to the FREE Tips on the website as it takes into account ACTUAL raceday conditions such as weather, scratchings and track conditions. Things we cannot know until the Race Day.  In addition, SMS tips allow for the additional form research conducted by the Mug Punting experts on Friday and Saturday mornings.  See our recent winners section for information on our recent winning SMS selections.