Assessment of racetrack conditions is a complex business because it involves interaction of the horse with the racing surface - the major factors include the surface conditions, type of surface, track configuration and racing speed.
The 2 main factors that influence track conditions are grass type & rainfall. For example Moonee Valley races on the much publicised Strath Ayr surface, whereas Flemington’s new racing surface will comprise a kikuyu-based turf.
Even without any rain the track type can effect a horses performance, for instance Fields of Omagh was a superstar on the Starth Ayr, but only an honest toiler at Flemington.
Add a couple of centimetres of rain to the track on the morning of the races and you also have a rain affected track to contend with when trying to pick a winner, and that’s what we will focus on here.
How do they test a track?
The major mechanical device used in testing the track is the penetrometer. The penetrometer measures the surface hardness by systematically dropping a weight into the track. The further the weight goes into the track, the higher the penetrometer reading and the wetter the track.
STANDARD TRACK RATINGS
To further assist punters, trainers & jockeys, early in 2006, the Racecourses around Australia introduced a new universal system to classify the condition of the race track. This scale is easy to read…the larger the number the wetter the track. The scale is outlined below:
FAST 1: A dry hard track.
GOOD 2: A firm track with a reasonable grass coverage, on the fast side of good.
GOOD 3: A track with a good grass coverage and cushion. Ideal track, heading towards dead.
DEAD 4: A track with just a little bit too much lubrication. Shouldn't affect any chances although on the worse side of good.
DEAD 5: Significant amount of water in the track, worse side of Dead, horses may start to slip in the running.
SLOW 6: Not too boggy, but it will suit some horses more than others, just worse than dead and into slow range.
SLOW 7: Rain affected, starting to get soft.
HEAVY 8: Soft track, just into Heavy range, will suit some horses (such as Subzero, Rain Lover, etc).
HEAVY 9: Sloppy, Very Sloppy. Genuine Heavy
HEAVY 10: Basically a bog, horses ankle deep in mud as they run.
Generally the track rating will be given out on the morning of the race, but unfortunately analysis of the track condition doesn’t end there…you have to put some trust in the weatherman.
For example, if showers are forecast and occur during the day the change in the track will be closely aligned with the amount of rain. A forecast of a dry and windy day will often quickly dry up the track during the day. A track drying out is also influenced by the season. Understandably a summer track will dry out far quicker than a winter track.
You’ll often hear that a track has been “upgraded” (got harder) or “downgraded” (got softer) during the course of a race meeting due to the prevailing weather conditions on the day.
WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF RAIN ON PUNTING?
The old punting saying of "track wet - don't bet" has some truth to it, but you can still bet and win on wet tracks (and get better value for doing so) if you are careful and follow a few common sense rules.
Has your horse got wet track form?
When the rain comes down (and boy do we need the rain around Australia), form on a dry track is of no use. We here at Mug Punters try to avoid backing short priced “dry track” horses when they hit a wet track….unless they are a superstar.
All you have to do is look at your horses form….have they got a win on a track with a similar rating? If they don’t, then stay away and save your money for another day.
Sometimes no runners have wet track form….what do I do..??
It's easier to find out what an older horse has done previously in the wet. They've had more time to build a wet track record and any form guide will tell you their wins & placings in the wet. If they have no form on the wet, do not place your bet.
Sometimes no horse in the race will have run or won on a wet track. This is especially true for races involving 2 year olds. The Mug Punters team try to avoid betting on 2 year old racing in most situations, but if you use the horses breeding you may just be able to snag yourself a winner at juicy odds.
Encosta De Lago & Zabeel, both produce horses who run well “in the slop”. Redoute's Choice the “boom sire” has produced winners on every surface imaginable including ice, sand and carpet. He has also produced his share of wet trackers.
Horses like Octagonal (despite liking wet tracks himself), haven’t really produced horses that have enjoyed running on rain effected ground, so steer clear of the Big O’s kids (especially if you’ve met the Big O from the Mug Punting Team).
What about Barriers or the Weight a horse carries?
Wide barriers aren't as big a problem when the track is wet. Why is that? Isn’t a wide barrier bad? Well there are a few reasons why a bad barrier is not always bad in a wet track situation. The main reason is that horses in outside barriers can sometimes find a firmer part of the track out wider as opposed to horses right on the rails. However if your horse is going to be stuck 3 wide he better be on something as hard as concrete.
With regards to weight, my best suggestion would be to go and try running a lap of your local football ground with a woollen jumper on in the rain, a horse feels a similar weight when it runs in the wet. The more weight a horse has the more they feel it and the quicker they stop….and the quicker your money goes straight to the profit figure of the TAB, UniTab or SuperTab.
There’s no need to be scared of betting when it rains, just take a little more care.
Happy Punting
Mug Punting Team